[geeks] Global warming, was Mr Bill?
Patrick Giagnocavo
patrick at zill.net
Thu Sep 18 19:34:14 CDT 2008
Phil Stracchino wrote:
>> Consensus means nothing.
>
> Especially coming from people whose entire life's work consists of
> inventing voodoo economic systems built around wealth that only exists
> on paper. Bad counter-example.
It's perfectly apt, given the unproven and unprovable climate model
systems built around curve-fitted and smoothed measurements that only
exist on paper.
I am really surprised, on a "geeks" list, that people would not take the
time to actually do even a back-of-envelope rough guess on the computing
power needed to model even 10,000 time steps of climate (say 30 years if
each time step were a day), given the vast number of variables and the
way they interact with each other, even assuming perfect knowledge of
oceans, the Gulf Stream, the Pacific High, etc.
It would take years upon years of time on any Top500 system currently in
existence.
You can look at it from a "probability" POV, or from a "statistics" POV.
Either way, you end up with something that is not computable.
Therefore all claims of "working climate models that have useful
predictions" are bunk.
--Patrick
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